who is likely to win nigeria presidential election

Since then, observers have feared that legal loopholes and gaps in election administration could leave future elections vulnerable to attempts at being overturned. Bola Tinubu, a former Governor of Lagos State and nominee of the All Progressives Congress, won the disputed election with 36.61% of the vote, 8,794,726 total votes. Uncertainty is incorporated with 53 distributions, one at the national level and another in each province. Though 18 political parties and candidates are participating in the election, three are considered to have brighter chances of winning the poll. Politics Polls Who is most likely to win the 2023 Presidential Election? The party lost in two out of six states in the Despite Biden garnering a clear majority of the electoral college in 2020, Trump refused to concede, and instead urged his supporters to stop the steala message that famously culminated in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. Latest Naija News And Trending Stories In Nigeria, Nigeria 2023 Presidential Election Results State by State: See The Full List Here, Can Peter Obi Win Presidential Election? One of the key factors that will likely determine the outcome of the election is the current state of the Nigerian economy. emerge winner of the 2023 presidential election. This momentum isnt just in the primary. Calibrate expected errors. The graph shows the summary: What does this data mean? Conducted in early December, the results showed 23 per cent of voters willing to vote for Mr Obi if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13 per cent proposing to vote for Mr Tinubu who fell in second place. His election victory is being challenged by Obi, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and the Allied People Movement. The smaller LP won none of the two gubernatorial elections held It found that Atiku will win all but one of his 11 states in the Northwest and NorthEast where the Hausa-Fulani and Muslims like him are predominant, Mr Obi will win virtually all the states in the Southeast, Southsouth and Northcentral where the Igbo and Christians like him are predominant, while Mr Tinubu will win all the six states in the Southwest and three in the Northwest where either the Yoruba or Muslims like him are predominant. It will be the largest. For those who have been following our blog since 2014, it should be noted that we have an accurate track record of predictions. Predictions are produced by a statistical model based on surveys and their historical accuracy. Given the large pool of undecided voters and/or those who refused to disclose their preferred choice, Mr Peter Obis 8%-point lead at this stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him from a leading pack of candidates scoring 13%, 10% and 3%. Bisi Abidoye is theassistant managing editor for standards at PREMIUM TIMES Follow Us On Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter. PAY ATTENTION: Join Legit.ng Telegram channel! Another observation from this poll is that it strongly suggests that Nigerians will ignore party leanings or loyalty and instead vote largely along ethnic and religious lines. Ally rea 15 fun places in Ikeja: cool hangout spots you should check out, 'Era of mass closures': the Japan businesses without successors, Ministerial List: Tinubu removes Wike, Ganduje's names over DSS report? Overall, 71 per cent of the respondents believed the presidential candidates should compulsorily participate in a televised debate and/or town hall meeting, with the debates/town hall meetings spanning across topics like their manifestos, competence checks, and personality recognition amongst others. First, the error of the surveys in Spain is estimated. All Rights Reserved. The president said one of the goals of the currency redesign exercise is to disable politicians from buying votes at the elections. Tinubus popularity and influence in the southwest region of Nigeria could give him an advantage in the presidential race. The top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming election are the need to tackle insecurity (35 per cent), Economy (26 per cent), Unemployment (10 per cent), Poverty alleviation (7 per cent), and Education (6 per cent). Spain election: Conservatives win but fall short of majority And there is still a one in 20 chance that the PP would end up above (or below) that huge range. However, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research found something entirely different. What does this current situation say about the state of the American electorate? Candidates with a reputation for being a unifying force, with a track record of working across party lines and reaching out to different communities, may be more likely to win the election. Gabon: 19 candidates confirmed for August presidential elections In 23% of the remaining simulations, none of the above sums is possible. Its now widely accepted that former President Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. Create a nationwide shortage of cash so that citizens are incited to vote against APC candidates across the board resulting in massive losses for the Party in all the elections; b. 2:09. Taking into account all this data and the natural error of the polls, what are the probabilities of each event? According to the accompanying note to the result of the poll by EiE: The data suggest that the Labour Party (LP)s Peter Obi and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)s Atiku Abubakar could garner enough votes over a sufficient number of states across four of the countrys six geopolitical zones to meet the constitutional requirement of scoring 25% in at least 24 states. Choice of distribution type. The race promises to be filled with intense competition and a lot of uncertainty, making it difficult to predict who will come out on top. Spain's opposition right-wing Popular Party (PP) won Sunday's snap general election, with over 99% of the votes counted, but was set to fall short of a parliamentary majority. northeast and even suffered a heavy defeat there when he ran The normal excitement about who may win is being. Mondaq uses cookies on this website. Exaggerated and discredited narratives dominated news cycles. Fitch said while the election has traditionally been between the APC and the PDP, the vote would be a three-horse race for the first time since Nigerias 1999 return to democracy due to the popularity of Mr Obi, especially among Nigerias urban and affluent voters. second term in 2015 even though it was believed that the north had Nigeria's Labour Party's candidate Peter Obi casts his vote during the presidential elections in Agulu, Nigeria. Those errors depend on at least two things: the size of the party and the closeness of the elections. Ultimately, while the list above includes names of presidential aspirants for the 2023 presidential elections, none of the political parties has elected their party's candidate as . they must also have extensive party infrastructure across the If we assume them to be independent, the errors cancel out between provinces and the model fails due to overconfidence. Another poll conducted by SBM Intelligence for Enough is Enough (EiE) Nigeria, projected Mr Obi would win 15 states and cross the 25 per cent threshold in 25 states overall. A clear majority of respondents said they. The issue was aggravated when Nyesom Wike, Rivers governor and Atikus closest opponent in the primary, was snubbed by the PDP flag bearer who picked Governor Ifeanyi Okowa as his running mate. That perhaps is the reason politicians resorted to buying elections in cash directly from the voters. Given the current cash crunch, the agents will prefer at least part of the allowance in cash. Betting markets echo the polls, and currently give Trump 2-1 odds of being the nominee over DeSantis. and a part of the country. Nigeria's 2023 presidential election -- described as the nation's most hotly contested since the end of military rule in 1999 -- is taking place amid a backdrop of economic troubles and . Also, you will not take a security person to a polling unit from morning till evening without giving him money to eat and I dont think you expect him to go to the POS to withdraw the N1,000 you are going to give him, Mr Bello said. Atiku is a strong and charismatic leader who has a huge support base across the country and has ran for president in the past, his past campaign experience would work in his favour. Who between them has the most votes will be returned as president after Saturdays votes have been tallied. The report added that Atiku's chances have been narrowed by the growing popularity of Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labour Party (LP), in the southeast region which is traditionally the powerhouse of the PDP. The 2024 election is more likely to hinge on traditional issues like inflation and the state of the economy than it is on relitigating 2020 or the scandal surrounding Jan. 6 and Trumps attempts to overturn the election. Get the hottest stories from the largest news site in Nigeria. The research and analysis division . In the run-up to last years midterms, the media emphasized the role that election deniersshould they wincould play in the certification process in 2024 and raised concerns over how Trump and his allies could exploit loopholes in the Electoral Count Act of 1876 to steal the election from its rightful winner. Incorporate survey uncertainty. underwhelming. about your specific circumstances. Adeyanju in a Twitter post sighted by Legit.ng on Friday, August 12, said the current division in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will hand Tinubu the victory. , --, . President of the United States from 2017 to 2021, 46th and current president of the United States, American politician, 46th Governor of Florida. This is the question answered by our classic probabilistic electoral model, which EL PAS has been publishing since 2016. Atiku got 10% while Kwankwaso polled two per cent in the fresh poll released in December. With the changing realities in next year's electoral permutations, there is an increasing likelihood that the first ballot at the February 25 presidential election may not produce a clear winner. Tinubu polled a total. How likely are 2, 3, or 5 point errors to occur? Predictions For The 2023 Nigerian Presidential Race: The Candidate That Will Win. Fitch predicts winner of Nigeria's presidential election And should the Democrats nominee in 2024 somehow be Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump becomes the far-and-away frontrunner. 5th July, 2023PREPEC 2023: Tinubu has closed his defense against the petition filed by Atiku & PDPCounsel to the Respondent tendered CTC of documents, amongst which are forms EC8D and EC8DA from Kano State.Admisibility of the documents were objected to by the Petitioners. To win an election outright, a candidate has to win the most votes, with at least 25% in at least 24 of Nigeria's 36 states. The continuous deployment of technological innovations, such as the bio-modal voters accreditation system (BVAS) and electronic transmission of results from polling units, means the system is getting more reliable in reflecting the will of voters. The scarcity of cash has brought misery upon many homes and businesses, with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund among those who have questioned the timing of the currency redesign exercise so close to crucial general elections. Since civilian rule was restored in 1999, Many of the polls put Mr Obi in the lead but all of them who did so also predicted a run-off. ABOUT 18 months to the 2023 presidential elections, a number of Nigerian politicians are being touted as messiahs that would take the country to the promised land after the tenure of President Muhammadu Buhari. However, of immediate concern are the potential harms that the scarcity of cash can do to the 25 February polls. To make this estimate we used a statistical model and simulated the elections 15,000 times, as explained in the methodology at the end of the article. Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has declared Bola Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress (APC) the winner of the 2023 presidential election. The following graph represents our estimate of seats based on the average of polls. Sign up now. 03:30 - Source: CNN Abuja, Nigeria CNN Nigerians will head to the polls Saturday in a fiercely-contested presidential vote that analysts say is too close to call. The 14 other candidates have not been visible in the campaigns and only on Friday, five of their parties announced their endorsement of Atiku of the PDP. The foundation had commissioned a poll in September that tipped Mr Obi to win the election with Mr Tinubu and Mr Abubakar finishing second and third position respectively. For one, it suggests that many Americans ultimately may not care about whether someone, Trump or otherwise, tries to steal an election by pressuring state and local officials to overturn results. You need to estimate the expected accuracy of the probes. Nigeria Presidential Election: Peter Obi Leads in Opinion Poll - Bloomberg You can read details here. Who wins the 2023 presidential election? The Fitch verdict Nigeria presidential election results 2023 by the numbers New data confirms that Republicans are increasing their turnout advantage. The structures of the two parties across the country, made up of their local officials, members and supporters, give them the edge in canvassing support outside the elite circles of voters. Peter Obi has been declared d winner by d tribunal (sic), reads a Facebook post published on July 18, 2023, and shared with more than 360 times. In the last five years they have been quite accurate in Spain, although with exceptions such as the 2018 Andalusian elections. Can they fulfil the 25% threshold? I then define the covariance matrix of these distributions so that the sum of the votes does not exceed 100% (a idea from Chris Hanretty). The errors of more than 4,100 polls in 241 elections in 19 Western countries have been analyzed. However, this rule has been interpreted differently and there November 1, 2022 139 No comment The 2023 general election is fast approaching, each party and their candidates are gearing up to put in all their shots at winning Nigeria's number office as the President of the nation. PAY ATTENTION: Donate to Legit Charity on Patreon. If his worst fears come to pass, the APC candidate will bear the brunt of the anger of voters against Mr Buharis policies and general performance over the last seven and a half years. It is easy to see the uncertainty that still surrounds these elections. Ally reacts. PAY ATTENTION: heck out news that is picked exactly for YOU click on Recommended for you and enjoy! Kwakol Research Date Published February 13, 2023 Category Insight Our Approach The Kwakol Research Nigeria 2023 presidential election forecast exercise is a forecast on vote intentions. Of course, a lot can change in the 16 months between now and next years election. Your support matters! However, for those who will cast their votes regardless, many may take out their anger on whichever candidate they can blame for the situation. Labour Partys Peter Obi is still projected to win Nigerias 2023 presidential election, according to a new poll commissioned by ANAP Foundation. Some see a clear majority for the right, others give it a narrow majority and some see a left-wing government as more likely. Of course, it also wasnt that long ago that DeSantis seemed to have all the momentum. Donald Trump is +275 and Ron DeSantis is +450. Atiku Abubakar is a former Vice President of Nigeria and a business magnate. Nigeria election results: Peter Obi lands surprise win in Lagos State - CNN The first part of the four-minute-long video shows a man narrating in pidgin English -- a simplified form of English widely spoken in Nigeria -- alongside pictures of Tinubu, Obi, and Orji Okpe, a TV presenter on local station Arise Television. Despite the uncertainty, one thing is for sure, 2023 Nigerian Presidential race will be an interesting one and it will be interesting to see who will come out on top. Federalism in simple terms is the division of law-making powers and functions between two levels of government, so that general and regional governments are each within a sphere co-ordinate and independent. Fitch Solutions Report. The rest of the political forces would have around 31 seats in total. Nigerian election: What to know about the vote in Africa's largest However, there has been no confirmation of when any of the matters will resume, and the judgments delivered. Montse Hidalgo Prez contributed to this story. THISDAY: Why Run Off is Increasingly Likely in Nigeria's 2023 In line with reports in the introduction to this piece, unless the cash squeeze on everyday Nigerians eases before Election Day, voter turnout will be low across the country. This outcome, however, is complicated by the fact that the All Progressives Congress (APC)s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is likely to do well in two of the countrys biggest voting statesKano and Lagosand the heavily populated south-west and north-west states, thereby winning the popular vote, although reaching the 50%+1 bar may be a stretch too far.. that both Obi and Tinubu had closed their cases after all evidence had been presented and witnesses' testimonies completed. Should that happen, the two candidates with the highest numbers of votes will face off in a new poll on 4 March and whoever gets more votes will be declared the next president. Obis reputation for being an effective manager of resources could give him a strong base of support among voters who are looking for a candidate who can improve the countrys economy. If that hopefully proves to be the case and the poll is held peacefully, what are the chances of the candidates? We believe that the Labour Partys rise in popularity is likely to split the opposition vote, favouring the ruling APC. What is the possible path to victory for each candidate? As the clock counts down to 25 February, normal pre-poll excitement about who may win has been overtaken by a not unreasonable fear, especially among Nigerians who were adults before the last of the military despots were ushered out in 1999, that the election may not even hold. There is a perception that the polls are not reliable, but the truth is that the polls have not done badly lately. The three main candidates Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress, Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party and outsider Peter Obi of the Labour Party . Sixteen months ago, Russia had just invaded Ukraine, an event that few saw coming. Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Peter Obi and Bola Ahmed Tinubu PT State of the Race: Who wins Nigeria's presidential election? Every Nigerian has rights, duties, liabilities and privileges entrenched under various existing laws. He has been out of office for the past sixteen years and has been running for the presidency. Yung Jocs children: how many kids does the rapper have? Post falsely claims Nigerian presidential candidate Peter Obi handed But prevailing wisdom also suggests that Trump doesnt stand a chance against President Joe Biden in the general electionwith some Democrats eager for the opportunity to face him again. Economist Intelligence Unit Predicts Winner of Nigeria's 2023 Your support matters! But his influence over the outcome there was Part 1. PREPEC 2023: Has Reserved Judgement on the Petition brought before it by APM challenging the outcome of the 2023 Elections.Counsel to the Petitioner tendered and adopted their final written addresses and reports by all the parties and urged the Court to grant their Petition. Indeed, we expect that Obi a Christian from the South East will do well in states in Nigerias South East and South-South regions, which traditionally have been PDP strongholds., Dataphyte Research also conducted a state by state ground-truthing stats, which involved analysing past voting patterns, voter turnouts, voter choice homogeneity, the religious homogeneity index, and so on and found the current scenario to be similar to that in the 2015 elections.. is to rule the country. The polls demonstrate his electoral strength. Step 1. In other words: our ranges are wide but not capricious, because they represent the accuracy of past polls. Out of every 100 possible futures, the numbers at the top say in how many the right wins and in how many the left wins. The PDP and Atiku also refused to give in to the demand of Wike and his allies that the national chairman of the party, Iyorchia Ayu, should resign in the interest of justice and equity. guide to the subject matter. They all lead us to agree with Dataphyte that a winner will emerge from the 25 February poll. Section 134 of Nigeria's constitution says a candidate can only be deemed to have won the presidential election if they have won at least 25% of votes in two-thirds of all states and the capital Abuja. Who will win the 2023 Nigerian presidential election? A database is built with all the elections since 1986. An immediate political consequence of the crisis is a crack in the governing All Progressives Congress (APC). Little Hercules biography: where is the kid bodybuilder now? Runners-up were former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peoples Democratic Party, and former Governor of . Mondaq Ltd 1994 - 2023. Be the first to get hottest news from our Editor-in-Chief, Check your email and confirm your subscription. Surprisingly, rallies by Mr Tinubu in Owerri, Ibadan and Maiduguri; and by Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Adamawa, drew large and excited crowds, suggesting that many Nigerians are eager to defy the economic situation and cast their ballots on Election Day. The nationwide poll shows a significant lead taken by Mr Obi with Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) respectively trailing him. Please enter your username or email address to reset your password. Buhari, from northern Katsina, will have been in power for eight their bases. Kwankwaso Rabiu is a former governor of Kano State, and he was also a former Minister of Defense. Nigerian Election 2023 and Bola Tinubu's Victory: What to Know Nigeria 2023: Who will succeed President Buhari? On the other hand, the polls that predicted victory for Mr Tinubu expect him to win on the first ballot, although one of them, Fitch, hedged its bet by not ruling out the possibility of a run-off. Most of his career has. And the opposite happens with the PSOE, because if it grows enough it would threaten the PPs first position in many provinces. He also reiterated the presidents now hollow-sounding affirmation of support for his partys presidential candidate. Power is 'zoned' to a religion The PPs solitary majority only occurs in 1 out of 100 occasions (1%). was not in power for the last eight years and so the zoning rule Student-t distributions are used instead of normal ones so that they have longer tails (kurtosis): this makes it more likely that very extreme events will occur. Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra state, is a seasoned politician who is well respected in the Southeast region of Nigeria.
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